Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | LVR | 17 | 153 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 262.7 |
| 2025 | LVR | 12 | 86 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 174.2 |
| Career | — | 29 | 239 | 176 | 1874 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 436.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Ditka ⏳ 1962 | TE | 1972 | 0.651 | 12.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 8 | 1062 | 622 |
| Kellen Winslow ⏳ 1980 | TE | 1987 | 0.627 | 15.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 1301 | 892 |
| Jermichael Finley washed out | TE | 2013 | 0.597 | 12.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 624 | 379 |
| Jason Witten | TE | 2020 | 0.585 | 14.3 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 14 | 2921 | 1895 |
| Jeremy Shockey | TE | 2011 | 0.579 | 11.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 8 | 1335 | 929 |
| Tony Gonzalez | TE | 2013 | 0.570 | 15.0 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 14 | 3317 | 2125 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | 2021 | 0.566 | 19.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 8 | 2054 | 1164 |
| Jordan Reed washed out | TE | 2020 | 0.559 | 14.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 851 | 663 |
| Chris Cooley | TE | 2012 | 0.558 | 11.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 1092 | 733 |
| Kellen Winslow washed out | TE | 2013 | 0.548 | 12.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 1141 | 846 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 895.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.536
Comp pool washed-out rate: 35% (7/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 788 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 834. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,715 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,128 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,344 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.734 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.967 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(987 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 987 × 0.967) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.923 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 12 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=0.94) |
| = Final production score | 895 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.