Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | 9 | 28 | 20 | 178 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 55.8 |
| 2022 | HOU | 11 | 28 | 14 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26.8 |
| 2023 | HOU | 14 | 21 | 17 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.9 |
| 2024 | HOU | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Career | — | 36 | 80 | 53 | 532 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 136.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | TE | 2017 | 0.820 | 11.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 1055 | 766 |
| George Wrighster washed out | TE | 2008 | 0.783 | 5.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 221 | 157 |
| Brent Celek | TE | 2017 | 0.773 | 11.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 9 | 1079 | 854 |
| Jared Cook | TE | 2021 | 0.765 | 10.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 11 | 1508 | 1109 |
| Dion Sims washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.765 | 4.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 222 | 135 |
| Reggie Kelly | TE | 2011 | 0.754 | 3.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 10 | 378 | 235 |
| Jesse James washed out | TE | 2023 | 0.754 | 5.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 362 | 157 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.748 | 3.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 167 | 96 |
| Levine Toilolo washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.746 | 3.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 242 | 132 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.745 | 6.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 243 | 123 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 55.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.734
Comp pool washed-out rate: 65% (13/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 275 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 319. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 541 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 288 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 275 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.475 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.900 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(131 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 131 × 0.900) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 55 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.