Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | ATL | 14 | 27 | 19 | 271 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 64.1 |
| 2017 | ATL | 16 | 65 | 49 | 526 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 119.6 |
| 2018* | ATL | 16 | 88 | 71 | 660 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 161.0 |
| 2019* | ATL | 13 | 97 | 75 | 787 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 189.7 |
| 2020 | CLE | 13 | 70 | 46 | 435 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 113.5 |
| 2021 | CLE | 16 | 61 | 38 | 345 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 90.5 |
| 2022 | TEN | 17 | 60 | 41 | 444 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 97.4 |
| 2023 | LVR | 15 | 23 | 18 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.7 |
| Career | — | 120 | 491 | 357 | 3635 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 870.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | TE | 2017 | 0.853 | 11.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1079 | 30 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | 2022 | 0.760 | 10.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1213 | 69 |
| Randy McMichael | TE | 2012 | 0.714 | 9.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 979 | 72 |
| Rich Caster ⏳ 1979 | TE | 1982 | 0.710 | 9.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 956 | 70 |
| Charle Young ⏳ 1982 | TE | 1985 | 0.697 | 9.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 954 | 208 |
| Eric Green ⏳ 1998 | TE | 1999 | 0.674 | 9.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 894 | 21 |
| Desmond Clark | TE | 2010 | 0.671 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 795 | 46 |
| Jerry Smith ⏳ 1974 | TE | 1975 | 0.669 | 11.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1154 | 77 |
| Frank Wycheck | TE | 2003 | 0.661 | 8.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1044 | 40 |
| Bob Trumpy ⏳ 1976 | TE | 1977 | 0.652 | 8.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 847 | 43 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 196.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.668
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 144 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 149. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 323 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 236 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 220 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(220 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 220 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.891 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 196 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.