Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | WAS | 14 | 170 | 795 | 11 | 44 | 36 | 247 | 0 | 204.2 |
| 2021 | WAS | 16 | 258 | 1037 | 7 | 52 | 42 | 294 | 3 | 223.1 |
| 2022 | WAS | 15 | 149 | 546 | 3 | 58 | 46 | 353 | 2 | 163.9 |
| 2023 | WAS | 16 | 65 | 265 | 1 | 59 | 48 | 389 | 2 | 123.4 |
| 2024 | NWE | 17 | 120 | 538 | 1 | 29 | 23 | 206 | 0 | 99.4 |
| 2025 | NWE | 5 | 25 | 106 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15.2 |
| Career | — | 83 | 787 | 3287 | 24 | 245 | 197 | 1495 | 7 | 829.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones ⏳ 1988 | RB | 1993 | 0.774 | 13.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 931 | 29 |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | 2022 | 0.772 | 12.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 1195 | 270 |
| Travis Henry washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.760 | 13.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 988 | 283 |
| Julius Jones washed out | RB | 2010 | 0.755 | 12.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 866 | 187 |
| Tevin Coleman washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.750 | 12.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 774 | 52 |
| Tony Galbreath ⏳ 1981 | RB | 1987 | 0.706 | 11.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 6 | 1290 | 363 |
| C.J. Spiller washed out | RB | 2017 | 0.706 | 12.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 792 | 88 |
| Marion Barber washed out | RB | 2011 | 0.701 | 14.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 1138 | 88 |
| Kenyan Drake washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.675 | 13.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 974 | 104 |
| Michael Bennett | RB | 2010 | 0.675 | 10.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 692 | 112 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 107.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.687
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 146 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 152. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 411 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 165 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 257 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.490 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(126 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 126 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 107 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.