Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CLE | 14 | 23 | 10 | 135 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 33.4 |
| 2022 | CLE | 11 | 10 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 57 | 18.8 |
| Career | — | 25 | 33 | 14 | 186 | 1 | 10 | 96 | 52.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Jarrett washed out | WR | 2010 | 0.902 | 3.7 | 3 seasons · ended age 23 | 1 | 69 | 37 |
| Sam Hurd washed out | WR | 2011 | 0.892 | 2.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 121 | 58 |
| Ron Dugans washed out | WR | 2002 | 0.882 | 4.1 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 138 | 111 |
| Trevor Gaylor washed out | WR | 2002 | 0.881 | 5.3 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 110 | 82 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | 2023 | 0.880 | 11.5 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 1245 | 971 |
| Andre Caldwell washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.877 | 5.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 334 | 288 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | 2021 | 0.875 | 20.5 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 2397 | 1913 |
| Jason Avant | WR | 2015 | 0.875 | 6.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 9 | 732 | 593 |
| T.J. Jones washed out | WR | 2019 | 0.874 | 4.6 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 140 | 112 |
| Christian Blake washed out | WR | 2021 | 0.874 | 2.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 52 | 33 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 66.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: comp_weighted
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.871
Comp pool washed-out rate: 80% (16/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 330 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 325. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 296 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 166 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 330 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.356 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.667 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(118 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 118 × 0.667) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 3 full seasons (last played 2022) |
| = Final production score | 66 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.