Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | CHI | 15 | 54 | 33 | 423 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 117.9 |
| 2019 | CHI | 16 | 85 | 52 | 656 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 127.5 |
| 2020 | CHI | 16 | 76 | 49 | 485 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 106.7 |
| 2021 | 2TM | 3 | 12 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 2021 | HOU | 2 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 2021 | PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | BAL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Career | — | 55 | 240 | 147 | 1630 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 383.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | WR | 2015 | 0.881 | 9.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 1256 | 735 |
| Keelan Cole washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.850 | 7.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 536 | 252 |
| Justin McCareins washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.828 | 7.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 548 | 252 |
| Alfred Jenkins ⏳ 1977 | WR | 1983 | 0.821 | 9.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 873 | 522 |
| Preston Dennard ⏳ 1981 washed out | WR | 1985 | 0.818 | 6.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 530 | 202 |
| James Scott ⏳ 1978 washed out | WR | 1983 | 0.815 | 7.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 436 | 139 |
| Seth Roberts washed out | WR | 2020 | 0.809 | 6.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 435 | 149 |
| Jeremy Kerley washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.802 | 7.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 600 | 209 |
| James Jones | WR | 2015 | 0.797 | 11.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 1168 | 711 |
| Quincy Morgan washed out | WR | 2006 | 0.785 | 6.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 380 | 97 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 82.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.793
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 334 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 322. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 506 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 534 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 334 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.542 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(181 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 181 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 5 full seasons (last played 2020) |
| = Final production score | 82 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.