Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | CIN | 16 | 300 | 516 | 58.1 | 3398 | 20 | 13 | 37 | 152 | 1 | 203.1 |
| 2012 | CIN | 16 | 329 | 528 | 62.3 | 3669 | 27 | 16 | 47 | 120 | 4 | 250.8 |
| 2013 | CIN | 16 | 363 | 586 | 61.9 | 4293 | 33 | 20 | 61 | 183 | 2 | 286.0 |
| 2014 | CIN | 16 | 309 | 481 | 64.2 | 3398 | 19 | 17 | 60 | 169 | 4 | 212.8 |
| 2015 | CIN | 13 | 255 | 386 | 66.1 | 3250 | 25 | 7 | 57 | 142 | 3 | 238.2 |
| 2016 | CIN | 16 | 364 | 563 | 64.7 | 4206 | 18 | 8 | 46 | 184 | 4 | 248.6 |
| 2017 | CIN | 16 | 297 | 496 | 59.9 | 3320 | 25 | 12 | 38 | 99 | 0 | 210.7 |
| 2018 | CIN | 11 | 226 | 365 | 61.9 | 2566 | 21 | 11 | 16 | 99 | 0 | 172.5 |
| 2019 | CIN | 13 | 314 | 528 | 59.5 | 3494 | 16 | 14 | 32 | 73 | 4 | 191.1 |
| 2020 | DAL | 11 | 216 | 333 | 64.9 | 2170 | 14 | 8 | 28 | 114 | 0 | 134.2 |
| 2021 | CHI | 8 | 149 | 236 | 63.1 | 1515 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 76 | 0 | 80.2 |
| 2022 | NOR | 14 | 252 | 378 | 66.7 | 2871 | 18 | 9 | 30 | 54 | 0 | 164.2 |
| 2023 | CAR | 3 | 34 | 58 | 58.6 | 361 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 23.6 |
| 2024 | CAR | 6 | 106 | 160 | 66.2 | 989 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 55.0 |
| 2025 | CAR | 4 | 25 | 37 | 67.6 | 293 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Career | — | 179 | 3539 | 5651 | 62.6 | 39793 | 254 | 151 | 487 | 1509 | 22 | 2480.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | QB | 2007 | 0.620 | 19.5 | 19 seasons · ended age 44 | 5 | 3206 | 389 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | QB | 2015 | 0.604 | 17.9 | 16 seasons · ended age 40 | 2 | 2382 | 96 |
| Steve DeBerg ⏳ 1992 | QB | 1998 | 0.475 | 14.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 39 | 1 | 2076 | 89 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.370 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 7 | 6073 | 1676 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 522.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 4
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.517
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/4)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 465 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 465. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 880 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 333 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 698 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(698 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 698 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.880 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 4 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 522 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.