Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | DET | 16 | 143 | 597 | 2 | 38 | 25 | 183 | 1 | 111.0 |
| 2016 | DET | 2 | 18 | 101 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 26.8 |
| 2017 | DET | 14 | 165 | 552 | 4 | 35 | 25 | 162 | 1 | 122.4 |
| 2018 | 2TM | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2018 | DET | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 2018 | MIN | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | MIN | 16 | 23 | 115 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 88 | 1 | 39.3 |
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 2 | 30.0 |
| 2021 | 2TM | 17 | 51 | 166 | 0 | 53 | 38 | 289 | 1 | 89.5 |
| 2021 | MIN | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 2021 | CAR | 11 | 44 | 136 | 0 | 49 | 35 | 272 | 1 | 81.8 |
| 2022 | LVR | 17 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 32 | 25 | 211 | 1 | 54.1 |
| 2023 | LVR | 17 | 15 | 89 | 0 | 24 | 19 | 131 | 0 | 41.0 |
| 2024 | LVR | 16 | 66 | 311 | 2 | 47 | 40 | 261 | 3 | 123.2 |
| 2025 | IND | 12 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 75 | 0 | 31.4 |
| Career | — | 180 | 559 | 2220 | 9 | 340 | 258 | 1860 | 12 | 766.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | RB | 2023 | 0.828 | 5.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 454 | 9 |
| Sammy Morris | RB | 2011 | 0.651 | 9.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 678 | 20 |
| Larry Csonka ⏳ 1978 | RB | 1979 | 0.532 | 10.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1270 | 170 |
| Ronnie Harmon ⏳ 1996 | RB | 1997 | 0.531 | 9.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1352 | 31 |
| Eric Metcalf | RB | 2002 | 0.527 | 11.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1317 | 4 |
| Taiwan Jones | RB | 2023 | 0.516 | 1.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Tony Galbreath ⏳ 1986 | RB | 1987 | 0.493 | 11.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1290 | 44 |
| Kevin Faulk | RB | 2011 | 0.477 | 9.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 1209 | 132 |
| Michael Pittman | RB | 2008 | 0.467 | 11.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1337 | 77 |
| Keith Byars ⏳ 1995 | RB | 1998 | 0.457 | 11.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 1526 | 165 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 96.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.480
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 108 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 106. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 137 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 302 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 108 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(108 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 108 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.891 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 96 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.