Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | OAK | 16 | 130 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 212.7 |
| 2016 | OAK | 16 | 132 | 83 | 1153 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 224.3 |
| 2017 | OAK | 14 | 96 | 48 | 680 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 156.4 |
| 2018 | 2TM | 15 | 107 | 75 | 1005 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 215.5 |
| 2018 | OAK | 6 | 31 | 22 | 280 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56.9 |
| 2018 | DAL | 9 | 76 | 53 | 725 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 158.6 |
| 2019 | DAL | 16 | 119 | 79 | 1189 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 246.5 |
| 2020 | DAL | 16 | 130 | 92 | 1114 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 234.8 |
| 2021 | DAL | 15 | 104 | 68 | 865 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 200.5 |
| 2022 | CLE | 17 | 132 | 78 | 1160 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 248.0 |
| 2023 | CLE | 15 | 128 | 72 | 1250 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 223.0 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 14 | 85 | 44 | 547 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 122.7 |
| 2024 | CLE | 6 | 53 | 24 | 250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 61.0 |
| 2024 | BUF | 8 | 32 | 20 | 297 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 61.7 |
| Career | — | 183 | 1355 | 830 | 11585 | 75 | 16 | 61 | 2422.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 2022 | 0.733 | 12.9 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 5 | 1923 | 384 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.706 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 2399 | 497 |
| Golden Tate | WR | 2021 | 0.702 | 13.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1646 | 222 |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | 2019 | 0.702 | 12.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1520 | 121 |
| Isaac Bruce | WR | 2009 | 0.681 | 13.1 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 7 | 2329 | 820 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.670 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 7 | 3461 | 1122 |
| Hines Ward | WR | 2011 | 0.670 | 13.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 5 | 2230 | 744 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | 2016 | 0.664 | 13.3 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1588 | 276 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 2023 | 0.655 | 15.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1602 | 187 |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | 2018 | 0.654 | 12.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1466 | 132 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 393.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.634
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 390 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 403. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 813 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,774 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 561 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(561 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 561 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 393 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.