Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | GNB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 2019 | GNB | 16 | 52 | 35 | 477 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 102.8 |
| 2020 | GNB | 10 | 46 | 33 | 451 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 97.8 |
| 2021 | GNB | 15 | 60 | 40 | 513 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 142.5 |
| 2022 | GNB | 15 | 100 | 60 | 788 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 174.8 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 14 | 49 | 23 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 60.1 |
| 2024 | NYJ | 12 | 60 | 37 | 530 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 126.0 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 10 | 18 | 10 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 |
| Career | — | 93 | 386 | 239 | 3147 | 28 | 8 | 70 | 728.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | WR | 2011 | 0.801 | 10.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 739 | 14 |
| Marcus Robinson | WR | 2006 | 0.751 | 11.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 780 | 80 |
| Derrick Alexander | WR | 2002 | 0.747 | 9.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 992 | 24 |
| Deion Branch | WR | 2013 | 0.745 | 10.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1190 | 307 |
| Lance Moore | WR | 2015 | 0.743 | 11.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1004 | 115 |
| Bert Emanuel | WR | 2001 | 0.738 | 9.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 722 | 34 |
| O.J. McDuffie | WR | 2001 | 0.735 | 9.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 801 | 21 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | WR | 2009 | 0.704 | 11.4 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 6 | 1840 | 811 |
| Nat Moore ⏳ 1981 | WR | 1986 | 0.701 | 9.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 35 | 4 | 1241 | 370 |
| Amani Toomer | WR | 2008 | 0.701 | 10.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1499 | 440 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 157.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.707
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 188 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 183. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 342 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 418 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 188 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(188 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 188 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.832 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 9 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 157 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.