Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | GNB | 3 | 9 | 16 | 56.2 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| 2006 | GNB | 2 | 6 | 15 | 40.0 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | GNB | 2 | 20 | 28 | 71.4 | 218 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 2008 | GNB | 16 | 341 | 536 | 63.6 | 4038 | 28 | 13 | 56 | 207 | 4 | 272.2 |
| 2009 | GNB | 16 | 350 | 541 | 64.7 | 4434 | 30 | 7 | 58 | 316 | 5 | 325.0 |
| 2010 | GNB | 15 | 312 | 475 | 65.7 | 3922 | 28 | 11 | 64 | 356 | 4 | 298.5 |
| 2011 | GNB | 15 | 343 | 502 | 68.3 | 4643 | 45 | 6 | 60 | 257 | 3 | 389.4 |
| 2012 | GNB | 16 | 371 | 552 | 67.2 | 4295 | 39 | 8 | 54 | 259 | 2 | 339.7 |
| 2013 | GNB | 9 | 193 | 290 | 66.6 | 2536 | 17 | 6 | 30 | 120 | 0 | 161.4 |
| 2014 | GNB | 16 | 341 | 520 | 65.6 | 4381 | 38 | 5 | 43 | 269 | 2 | 336.1 |
| 2015 | GNB | 16 | 347 | 572 | 60.7 | 3821 | 31 | 8 | 58 | 344 | 1 | 285.2 |
| 2016 | GNB | 16 | 401 | 610 | 65.7 | 4428 | 40 | 7 | 67 | 369 | 4 | 368.0 |
| 2017 | GNB | 7 | 154 | 238 | 64.7 | 1675 | 16 | 6 | 24 | 126 | 0 | 129.6 |
| 2018 | GNB | 16 | 372 | 597 | 62.3 | 4442 | 25 | 2 | 43 | 269 | 2 | 300.6 |
| 2019 | GNB | 16 | 353 | 569 | 62.0 | 4002 | 26 | 4 | 46 | 183 | 1 | 272.4 |
| 2020 | GNB | 16 | 372 | 526 | 70.7 | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 38 | 149 | 3 | 378.9 |
| 2021 | GNB | 16 | 366 | 531 | 68.9 | 4115 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 101 | 3 | 326.7 |
| 2022 | GNB | 17 | 350 | 542 | 64.6 | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 34 | 94 | 1 | 227.2 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| 2024 | NYJ | 17 | 368 | 584 | 63.0 | 3897 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 107 | 0 | 246.6 |
| 2025 | PIT | 16 | 327 | 498 | 65.7 | 3322 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 1 | 219.0 |
| Career | — | 264 | 5696 | 8743 | 65.1 | 66274 | 527 | 123 | 762 | 3634 | 36 | 4890.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.642 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 3 | 6073 | 950 |
| Vinny Testaverde | QB | 2007 | 0.365 | 19.5 | 19 seasons · ended age 44 | 1 | 3206 | 51 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 500.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: comp_weighted
Comps: 2
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.504
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/2)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 625 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 625. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 0 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 510 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 625 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(625 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 625 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 500 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.